COBRA vs ACA in 2026–2027: Which Is Cheaper After a Job Loss?
Published November 2, 2026 · 8 min read
If your household income is under 400% of the poverty level (about $62,600 for one person or $128,600 for a family of four in 2026), an ACA Marketplace plan is almost always cheaper than COBRA. COBRA averages about $833 a month for one person and gets no subsidy. COBRA makes sense mainly when you have already met this year's deductible, are in the middle of treatment, or your employer is paying part of it.
When you leave a job, you usually have two ways to stay insured: keep your employer plan through COBRA, or buy a plan on HealthCare.gov or your state's marketplace. The right choice can be worth thousands of dollars. Here is how to compare them, with real numbers.
How COBRA Works
COBRA lets you keep exactly the same health plan, doctors, and deductible progress for up to 18 months (36 months in some situations, such as divorce or the death of the covered employee). The catch is the price: you pay the whole premium, including the share your employer used to pay, plus up to a 2% administrative fee. According to KFF's 2026 Employer Health Benefits Survey, the average employer plan costs $9,804 a year for single coverage and $28,303 for family coverage. On COBRA that is roughly $833 a month single and $2,406 a month family.
How an ACA Marketplace Plan Works
Losing job-based coverage gives you a 60-day special enrollment period to buy a Marketplace plan. Its big advantage is the premium tax credit: the government caps what you pay for the benchmark Silver plan at a share of your income. In 2026 that share runs from 2.1% to 9.96% of income for households between 100% and 400% of the poverty level. Above 400% there is no subsidy, because the enhanced credits that removed that cliff expired at the end of 2025.
Side-by-Side Examples
These examples use 2026 subsidy rules, average 2026 COBRA costs, and illustrative benchmark Silver premiums of $620 a month for a 45-year-old and $1,900 a month for a family of four. Your real benchmark depends on your age and ZIP code.
| Household | Poverty level | Expected payment | ACA Silver | COBRA | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single, age 45, income $40,000 | 256% | 8.6% of income ($287/mo) | $287 | $833 | ACA saves $546/mo |
| Family of 4, income $90,000 | 280% | 9.35% of income ($701/mo) | $701 | $2,406 | ACA saves $1,705/mo |
| Single, age 45, income $70,000 | 447% | No subsidy (above 400%) | $620 | $833 | ACA saves $213/mo |
Even with no subsidy, the Marketplace plan in the third example is cheaper per month, though it may have a higher deductible or a narrower network than the old employer plan. Over six months, the first household saves about $3,276 and the family about $10,230 by choosing the Marketplace.
Run your own numbers with the COBRA vs ACA Calculator, or check your subsidy alone with the Obamacare Subsidy Calculator.
When COBRA Is the Better Choice
- You have already met your deductible or out-of-pocket maximum. A new Marketplace plan starts from zero. If you have a $4,000 deductible already paid and expensive care ahead, staying on COBRA until December can cost less overall. Compare with the Out-of-Pocket Calculator.
- You are mid-treatment (pregnancy, cancer care, surgery follow-up) and your doctors or hospital are not in any Marketplace network near you.
- Your employer is paying part of COBRA as part of severance. Check your severance agreement.
- You only need a short bridge before a new job's coverage starts, and keeping the same plan avoids disruption.
Deadlines and Rules That Trip People Up
- 60 days to elect COBRA, counted from the later of when coverage ends or when you get the election notice. Coverage is retroactive, so you can wait, shop the Marketplace, and elect COBRA only if something happens.
- 60 days for a Marketplace plan after losing job coverage. Don't let this window close while you decide.
- Dropping COBRA voluntarily does not let you switch to the Marketplace mid-year. You would have to wait for open enrollment. Running out of COBRA does qualify.
- No subsidy while on COBRA. Being offered COBRA doesn't affect your premium tax credit, but being enrolled in it does.
- Estimate income carefully. Subsidies are based on the whole year's income, including severance and unemployment benefits. If you go over 400% of the poverty level, you repay the entire subsidy at tax time.
What About 2027?
Open enrollment for 2027 coverage runs November 1, 2026 to January 15, 2027. Marketplace premiums and subsidy percentages are updated for 2027, so check your actual prices on HealthCare.gov. If you are on COBRA now, open enrollment is your chance to switch to a Marketplace plan for January without needing a special enrollment period. See Open Enrollment 2027: What to Expect and How COBRA Insurance Works.
Sources: KFF 2026 Employer Health Benefits Survey; U.S. Department of Labor, An Employee's Guide to Health Benefits Under COBRA; HealthCare.gov (special enrollment periods, COBRA and the Marketplace); IRS Revenue Procedure 2025-25 (2026 applicable percentages); HHS 2025 poverty guidelines. Benchmark premiums in the examples are illustrative. Educational information, not insurance or tax advice.